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Hey, I just wanted to let you guys know (you guys registered in New Jersey, that is) that Jersey has recently become a swing state.  For a while there I had been considering thinking about voting third-party of some sort, but now that my vote is more likely to actually determine the candidate that receives our electoral votes, I think I'm going to have to go with Kerry.

Just wanted to let you guys know.  You know.


( 8 comments — Leave a comment )
Oct. 15th, 2004 08:29 am (UTC)
I think NJ is one of the few states that divides it electorate based on either region or percentage points, so it's even harder to get those juicy 15 to turn blue.

but then again, that may have only been true before 1960, so I'm retarded.
Oct. 15th, 2004 08:41 am (UTC)
Wait, what? Who is blue and who is red again? I forget.

In any case, Jersey went to Gore in 2000 and Clinton in '96. And up until a little bit ago, the assumption was that we'd go to Kerry. It's only recently that we've acheived "swing state" status -- and even then, not every poll shows a close race. But it still makes me nervous.

McGreevey is a Democrat, and though Whitman is a Republican, she's a pretty liberal Republican.

According to this article, the electoral votes go to whomever wins the statewide popular vote.
Oct. 15th, 2004 08:47 am (UTC)
ahh, ok. It used to be the other way, and Dems want it to stay this way, and repubs want it changed back.

Polling is so weird. if it worked, all of them would say the same thing. I know I've never been polled, and nor have I ever known someone who was, so I assume they use the same 15 or 20 schizophrenics for each day's poll. It's clearly the only logical answer.
Oct. 15th, 2004 09:59 am (UTC)
some of the bigger polls only talk to like 1000 people, which seems way too insignificant to me. this is a very cool web site that keeps up to date poll info...
Oct. 15th, 2004 10:10 am (UTC)
yeah, we do look at that about 4 times a day here, sometimes weeping, sometimes drying our eyes. Again, I don't really trust their data, since they don't poll cell phones or people who didn't vote in 2000.
Oct. 15th, 2004 10:31 am (UTC)
I don't really trust their data

well, it's not their data, but i know what you mean. they say that polls with 500 to 1000 people have a 3-6% margin of error. i just wrote and ran some simulations using 500 and 1000 yes/no votes. i came up with a variance of about 2.8% with 500 and only 1.3% for 1000, so their margin of error is probably okay. then again i only spent two minutes writing my sim, so...shrug!
Oct. 15th, 2004 12:09 pm (UTC)
3-6% margin of error in these polls would mean that all states they have listed as less than "weak X candidate" and half of those "weak X" are inaccurate. This is even less useful, except to know which ones are more than 10 points ahead, basically.

Oct. 15th, 2004 11:18 am (UTC)
Your journal is so pretty! It really looks great!

I am pretty disspointed in the swing-state status. I loved that jers was a liberal place.
( 8 comments — Leave a comment )

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